The handful of numbers worth watching weekly
- Total outstanding — the size of the exposure.
- Overdue total — the part that has already broken its terms.
- Due this week — what should convert to cash imminently.
- Collected this period — whether the chase is actually working.
- Aging distribution — where the exposure is concentrated by age.
- Balance by customer — where it is concentrated by relationship.
Why the total is the least useful number on the page
Two businesses with identical outstanding totals can be in completely different health. One has everything under 30 days across forty customers. The other has half of it over 90 days with two customers. The total cannot tell them apart; the distribution can.
Watch the shape over time. Money migrating from Current into 31–60 month after month is a process failure that will become a cash crisis about a quarter later.
Where honest forecasting starts
- Apply your own realistic collection rates by bucket rather than assuming 100%.
- Include known disputes as uncertain, not as expected cash.
- Add committed outflows — payroll, materials, subcontractors — from outside AR.
- Confirm actual arrival against the bank, not against the CRM.
- Treat the result as a planning tool and involve your accountant for anything consequential.